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U.S. Economic News

May 1, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index decreased 2.0 percentage points to 57.3 in April. The Employment Index fell 3.1 percentage points to 54.2 while the New Orders Index edged down 0.7 percentage point to 61.2. ISM Report

Construction spending fell 1.7% in March to an annualized rate of $1.28 trillion. Public construction was unchanged while private construction decreased 2.1%. Census Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that key U.S. trade allies are relieved at the White House’s decision to delay the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs. The White House has indicated that the delay is meant to allow time to come to an agreement to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with the EU in exchange for a permanent exemption from the tariffs. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

April 30, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income rose 0.2% in March while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. The PCE price index was flat (up 2.0% Y/Y) and the core price index rose 0.2% (up 1.9% Y/Y). BEA Report

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index inched up 0.4% in March (down 3.0% Y/Y). NAR says that the contract activity has been mostly flat in early 2018 due to significant lack of inventory. NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that manufacturers are rushing to stock up on aluminum and steel. Some manufacturers report paying 35% premiums for stainless steel due to recent tariffs, and many market-watchers expect the price pressures to increase when exemptions for key trading partners expire this week. WSJ

According to Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, now that inflation is finally moving closer to 2% the Fed may have to raise rates more quickly than anticipated. Some investors say that the Fed may allow inflation to move slightly above 2% before accelerating their rate hikes, which would be consistent with current Fed projections. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

April 27, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The first estimate of Q1 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.3%, above the consensus estimate of 2.0%. The reading reflects healthy consumer spending, business investment, residential investment, as well as strong contributions from government spending. BEA Report

According to the Employment Cost Index, compensation costs for civilian workers rose 0.8% in the first quarter and are up 2.7% on the year. Wages and salaries were up 2.7% on the year and benefit costs were up 2.6%. BLS Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell 2.6 points to 98.8 in the final April reading, but is up 1.8 point on the year. The Index of Consumer Expectations edged down 0.4 point to 88.4, while the Current Economic Conditions Index dropped 6.3 points to 114.9. Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that companies are beginning to feel the effects of higher oil prices. Some companies, like airlines and shipping firms, expect to pass along higher operating costs to consumers, a move that could cause inflation to accelerate across the economy. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

April 26, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 2.6% in March after rising 3.5% (revised) in February, and are up 8.7% year-over-year. Excluding transportation, new orders were unchanged (up 7.2% Y/Y). Census Bureau Report

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit narrowed to $68.0 billion in March from $75.9 billion in February. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.5% and retail inventories fell 0.4%. Census Bureau Report

Initial jobless claims fell 24,000 to 209,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 2,250 to 229,250. DOL Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that recent Chinese tariffs on American goods threaten a number of American industries, including ginseng producers. While ginseng does not account for a large share of U.S. exports to China, it represents a symbolic target for Chinese retaliation, as ginseng is largely produced in states that supported President Trump during the 2016 election. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

April 25, 2018

U.S. News

Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal writes that financial deregulation efforts by the Trump administration are adding fuel to an already-hot economy. Ip contends that it is an unusual time for loosening financial regulations, as asset prices are near record highs and the current economic expansion is long in the tooth. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House will soon have to decide the fate of ethanol-blending requirements for oil refineries. The ethanol mandates present a difficult negotiation for the administration, as the President has voiced support for both the mandates and American energy companies, who staunchly oppose the mandates. WSJ