Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy gained 49,000 jobs in January, roughly in line with expectations. The unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3%, and the labor force participation rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 61.4%. BLS Report

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed from $69.0 billion (revised) in November to $66.6 billion in December. The goods deficit fell by $2.8 billion, while the services surplus fell by $0.4 billion. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 33,000 to 779,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 1,250 to 848,250. DOL Report

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 4.8% in Q4. Hours worked increased 10.7% while output increased 5.3%; unit labor costs rose 6.8%. BLS Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 1.1% in December following a 1.3% (revised) increase in November. New orders excluding transportation rose 1.4%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were up 0.7%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 174,000 jobs in December, above consensus estimates. The services sector gained 156,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector gained 19,000 jobs. ADP Report

The ISM Services Index rose 1.0 point to 58.7 in January, the eighth straight month of growth for the services sector and a slight acceleration compared to December. The New Orders Index increased 3.2 points to 61.8, while the Employment Index increased 6.5 points to 55.2. ISM Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects U.S. GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level by the middle of 2021, revising its summer forecast upward due to a less severe downturn than expected and a quicker recovery than expected. However, less positively, the CBO also forecasts that employment levels and potential economic output will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 and 2025, respectively. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that many U.S. consumers are shunning cash out of convenience and a desire to avoid virus transmission, driving a surge in contactless payments and digital retail sales. Overall, new payment habits adopted during the pandemic have accelerated a shift away from cash which could help support a quicker economic recovery, since consumers tend to spend more when using a card or digital wallet. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell 1.8 points to 58.7 in January, indicating industry expansion, though at a slower rate than the prior month. The Employment Index rose 0.9 points to 52.6, while the New Orders Index fell 6.4 points to 61.1. ISM Report

Construction spending rose 1.0% in December to an annualized rate of $1.49 trillion. Private construction rose 1.2% while public construction ticked up 0.5%. Census Bureau Report