Publications - Keybridge LLC

U.S. Economic News

June 5, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased 1.8 percentage points to 58.6 in May. The New Orders Index inched up 0.5 percentage point to 60.5 and the Employment Index also edged up 0.5 percentage point to 54.1. ISM Report

U.S. News

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 6.7 million job openings at the end of April, a record high. Hires rose to 5.6 million while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3%. BLS Report

The Financial Times reports that Mexico has unveiled retaliatory tariffs in response to recent U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. The tariffs will apply to various agricultural products, steel products, and bourbon whiskey, among other items. FT

U.S. Economic News

June 4, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

New factory orders for manufactured goods fell 0.8% in April following a 1.7% (revised) increase in March, but are up 8.3% on the year. New orders excluding transportation edged up 0.4% while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.0%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the synchronized global growth seen in 2017 and early 2018 has begun to fade, worrying investors. Multiple indicators of global demand have begun to weaken, especially in Europe, where recent elections and a slowdown in manufacturing activity have pushed investors to less-risky assets. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal the U.S. and China ended their most recent round of trade negotiations without reaching a settlement. China’s official news agency has said that if the U.S. imposes any tariffs on imports from China, any agreement reached in upcoming negotiations will not go into effect. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

June 1, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in May, above consensus. The unemployment rate declined to 3.8%, the labor force participation rate edged down to 62.7%, and average hourly earnings inched up to 2.7% Y/Y. BLS Report

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose 1.4 percentage points to 58.7 in May. The Employment Index increased 2.1 percentage points to 56.3 while the New Orders Index improved 2.5 percentage points to 63.7. ISM Report

Construction spending rose 1.8% in April to an annualized rate of $1.31 trillion. Private construction rose 2.8% while public construction fell 1.3%. Census Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. and Chinese negotiators are at odds over contracts for purchases of U.S. goods by China. Chinese negotiators are reportedly reluctant to agree to the long-term contracts that the U.S. wants, as it could be seen as giving too much leverage to a strategic competitor. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

May 31, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income rose 0.2% in April while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4%. The PCE price index rose 0.2% (up 2.0% Y/Y) and the core price index also increased 0.2% (up 1.8% Y/Y). BEA Report

Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 221,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 2,500 to 222,250. DOL Report

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index declined 1.3% in April (down 2.1% Y/Y). NAR says that pending home sales have shown few signs of breaking out, as severe inventory shortages keep many potential buyers out of the market. NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from the European Union. The tariffs come after the White House has been unable to win trade concessions from the EU, which has in turn threatened to impose tariffs on American blue jeans, bourbon, and motorcycles. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

May 30, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The second estimate of Q1 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2%, below the prior estimate of 2.3%. The reading reflects weak consumer spending and residential investment, but strong contributions from business investment. BEA Report

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit narrowed to $68.2 billion in April from $68.6 billion in March. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories were largely unchanged and retail inventories rose 0.6%. Census Bureau Report

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 178,000 jobs in May, slightly below expectations of 187,000. The services sector added 114,000 jobs and the goods-producing sector added 64,000 jobs. ADP Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that a severe shortage of housing in rural areas is limiting labor supplies at a time when the unemployment rate is at a seventeen-year low. Many rural areas in the U.S. have unemployment rates below the national average and high numbers of job openings, but sluggish population growth, widely dispersed populations, and high building costs have stunted growth of housing supply in rural areas, further limiting employment growth. WSJ