Publications

Jason Douglas of the Wall Street Journal writes that the biggest losers from a global trade war are likely to be smaller nations that depend heavily on global supply chains. Douglas points out that nations such as Taiwan, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and South Korea all have over 60% of their exports linked to global supply chains, meaning that a wide-reaching trade war would be more likely to create price pressures for domestic exporters in those countries. WSJ

According to the Washington Post, older workers are increasingly struggling to find work and have seen slower wage growth than the rest of the labor market. Data also show that many older workers are working part-time jobs and are taking longer to find new jobs despite a historically tight labor market, which may suggest that employers are favoring younger workers over more experienced workers. WaPo

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump says that he is prepared to levy tariffs on all $500 billion of goods imported from China. President Trump also reiterated that further U.S. tariffs will be determined by the severity of Chinese retaliation and that he actually wants China to do well. WSJ

Robin Wigglesworth of the Financial Times writes that trade tensions could cause U.S. firms to pull back on capital investments. Although faster global economic growth and cuts to U.S. corporate taxes have contributed to a recent acceleration in business investment, some analysts expect that an escalating trade war could slow investment growth to half its 2017 pace. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration projects that federal budget deficits will be more than $100 billion larger than previously expected in each of the next three years. The upward revisions, which will result in annual federal budget deficits of more than $1 trillion per year starting next year, are a result of expanded government spending and higher interest payments. WSJ

Richard Rubin of the Wall Street Journal writes that House Republicans are working on legislation to make recent tax cuts permanent for individuals. However, Senate Republicans are reportedly less interested in voting on another tax package, which would require 60 votes in the Senate but could allow Senate Democrats from Republican states the chance to vote for a sure-to-fail bill. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says that the U.S. economy is performing well and that the Fed should continue raising interest rates. However, Powell also highlighted the risk of permanently higher tariffs resulting from escalating trade tensions, which could force the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. seaborne imports into west-coast ports surged in June as importers stocked up on key goods in advance of new tit-for-tat tariffs. Although Chinese goods make up some 70% of imports to key ports in California, just 7% of goods would be affected by this round of tariffs. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration has filed WTO claims against key trade partners in response to recent retaliatory tariffs. The U.S. says that the retaliatory tariffs, which came after the U.S. imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, violate WTO rules while the U.S. tariffs are justified under international agreements. WSJ