Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined 2.8 points to 76.2 in the preliminary February reading and is down 24.8 points from February of last year. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell 4.2 points to 69.8, while the Current Economic Conditions Index declined 0.5 points to 86.2. University of Michigan

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that federal deficits are expected to surge over the next decade, but by less than predicted last summer, thanks to an improving economic outlook and higher expectations for inflation and spending. As a share of economic output, the deficit is projected to be 10.3% in FY2021, compared to 14.9% in FY2020 and an average of 3.3% over the past 50 years. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 19,000 to 793,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 33,500 to 823,000. DOL Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that, alongside expectations of a strong economic recovery, some unintended consequences of fighting climate change may be driving a new “supercycle” of years-long commodity gains. Already, prices for corn, soybean, copper, and oil have soared to multi-year highs after substantial drops in mid-2020, while bullish wagers on commodities are the highest in a decade. Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in January (up 1.4% from a year ago). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged in January but up 1.4% from last year. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that despite a corporate borrowing binge throughout 2020, large U.S. banks saw loan volume decline for the first time in over a decade. However, bank executives are hopeful that loan growth will pick back up in 2021, though the timing will depend on the pace of vaccine deployment and additional federal stimulus. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 95.0 in January as four components weakened, two improved, and four were unchanged. The decline in the index was primarily driven by a decrease in expectations for economic improvement, with the number of owners expecting better business conditions over the next two quarters now lower than in any other period since 2013. NFIB Report

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”) indicated that the number of job openings was little changed at 6.6 million in December. The number of hires decreased to 5.5 million, while the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.3%. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that crude oil prices have surged to their highest levels in over a year, fueled by recovering demand, depleting stockpiles, and continued production curbs. As a result, American consumers can expect to see higher retail fuel prices in two to four weeks, though analysts don’t expect any major impacts to fuel prices. WSJ

Bloomberg reports that roughly 5 million Americans – more than 5% of U.S. renters and mortgage holders – did not pay their rent or mortgage in December. While the percentage of households behind on their payments has decreased since last June, elevated financial stress remains for many Americans, including another 3.5 million renters and mortgage holders at risk of eviction or foreclosure. Bloomberg