Publications

The Wall Street Journal reports that New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that a potential yield-curve inversion alone is not enough to stop him from supporting further rate hikes. Williams said that an inverted yield curve would not automatically signal a recession due to extensive, global quantitative easing that has occurred over the last decade. WSJ

Richard Rubin of the Wall Street Journal writes that House Republicans are moving to make December’s personal tax cuts permanent. Though the tax cuts for individuals are currently scheduled to expire in 2025 and any extension wouldn’t have an immediate effect, House Republicans are hurrying to make the cuts permanent in advance of this fall’s midterm elections. WSJ

he Wall Street Journal reports that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has called for a pause in Fed rate hikes. Bullard says that the Fed should hold off on rate hikes until more economic data come in, and also pointed to the flattening yield curve as evidence that raising federal interest rates further could push the economy toward a recession. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. and Canada will resume trade talks today in an effort to reach a new NAFTA deal. The tense talks come as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said that no NAFTA deal is better for Canada than a bad NAFTA deal, and that there are key provisions, including a dispute-resolution system, that must be included in any new deal. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that sand companies operating in the Permian Basin may face declining demand for sand this year just as a flood of new sand supplies comes online. Although U.S. oil production is expected to set new records this year, constraints such as insufficient pipeline capacity and scarce labor mean that oil companies may cut back on production increases, causing the price of sand to drop. WSJ

Ben Bland of the Financial Times writes that the escalating U.S.-China trade war is forcing China-based manufacturers to realign global supply chains. Bland notes that while many firms are seeking to shorten supply chains to minimize the impact of tariffs on their products, it is unlikely that firms will be able to establish new relationships with factories, suppliers, and governments in the short-term, meaning that consumers will likely face higher prices. FT

The Financial Times reports that President Trump has threatened to pull the U.S. out of the WTO. The threat came yesterday as the President criticized the WTO for infringing on American sovereignty and for unfavorable outcomes in dispute-settlement cases brought before the organization. FT

Amrith Ramkumar of the Wall Street Journal writes that a prolonged rally in the U.S. dollar could put downward pressure on global stock markets. News that the U.S. may impose $200 billion in additional tariffs on Chinese imports caused the dollar to rise yesterday, and a further strengthening of the dollar could cause the prices of dollar-denominated commodities to rise for foreign buyers. WSJ