Publications

The Wall Street Journal reports that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says that a modernized “Taylor Rule” suggests that further rate hikes are not needed right now. Bullard says the updated Taylor Rule takes into account inflation expectations and the lessened impact of the labor market on price pressures in the broader economy. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, The U.S. has opened a new front in its economic conflict with China by announcing its intention to withdraw from a 144-year-old international postal service treaty. The treaty, which allows companies in China and other developing countries to ship small packages at much cheaper rates than U.S. firms, has been maligned by various trade groups in the U.S. that argue that the U.S. government is unfairly subsidizing foreign companies. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the Trump administration has told Congress that it intends to begin formal trade negotiations with the UK as soon as their government is ready. The administration also informed Congress that it will soon begin trade negotiations with Japan and the EU. FT

Heather Long of the Washington Post writes that now that the U.S. has more than one job opening for every unemployed person, workers may feel more empowered to ask for a raise. Long points out that although the labor market is historically tight, wages are still growing more slowly than expected, partly due to the fact that companies are opting for one-time bonuses or other perks like working from home. WaPo

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 7.1 million job openings at the end of August, an all-time high. Hires edged up to 5.8 million while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4%.  BLS Report

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. government ran a deficit of $779 billion in the fiscal year ending September 30, the largest deficit in six years. The deficit surged 17% from the prior fiscal year due to the combined effects of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts and recent, sharp increases in government spending. WSJ

Laura Kusisto of the Wall Street Journal writes that the U.S. housing market is running out of steam but faces a milder slowdown than it did in 2007. Kusisto argues that rising mortgage rates and slowing building activity are likely to worsen in the coming months, but because the housing market has been so slow to recover after the last recession the next slowdown will likely not be as sharp as the last. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. oil exports to China have collapsed amid the ongoing trade conflict between the two countries. Even though Beijing has not placed tariffs on American crude, the significant uncertainty arising from the trade dispute has caused many firms in China to seek other sources of crude oil because of the possibility that tariffs could be implemented on short notice. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, a recent survey of economists suggests that the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement is unlikely to affect long-run economic growth in the U.S. A majority of economists who were surveyed also said that they don’t expect the new trade deal to increase manufacturing employment, and may even reduce manufacturing employment due to higher labor costs. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in over seven years this week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.9%, the largest weekly jump in nearly two years, further worsening affordability issues for many homebuyers who already face a historic shortage of homes for sale. WSJ