U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 31, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 227,000 jobs in October, slightly below expectations of 230,000.  The services sector added 189,000 jobs and the goods-producing sector added 38,000 jobs. ADP Report

According to the Employment Cost Index, compensation costs for civilian workers rose 0.8% in the third quarter and are up 2.8% on the year.  Wages and salaries were up 2.9% on the year and benefit costs were up 2.6%.  BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that seaport and trade officials say that U.S. companies earlier this year pulled forward orders for Chinese goods subject to tariffs and are expected to do the same before new tariffs take effect on another wave of goods later this year. Many companies reportedly imported goods without a clear view on future demand, which has led to logistical bottlenecks and increasing costs. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. companies are raising prices on consumer goods ranging from airline tickets to cookies to shoes. Firms say that rising prices for inputs subject to tariffs and higher transportation costs are forcing them to raise prices for consumers. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 30, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose from 135.3 (revised) in September to 137.9 in October.  The increase was driven by improvements in both the Expectations Index and the Present Situation Index.  Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. Treasury expects to issue over $1 trillion in debt this year as higher spending and weaker tax revenues widen the deficit. The Treasury said that total debt issuance would be about $1.3 trillion in calendar year 2018, up from $546 billion in 2017 and the highest mark since 2010. WSJ

Amrith Ramkumar of the Wall Street Journal writes that hedge funds have scaled back their bets on bullish oil prices to the lowest point in a year. While much of 2018 saw robust demand and shrinking supply propel prices higher, investors now expect demand to slow and output to rise from key producers such as Saudi Arabia, which has weighed on oil prices. WSJ

Fed Under Fire: Is the Independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve at Risk?

Fed Under Fire: Is the Independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve at Risk?

October 29, 2018

Since July 2018, President Donald Trump has increasingly criticized the U.S. Federal Reserve for raising its benchmark rate rate, leading some to question whether the Federal Reserve’s independence is in danger. In this analysis, Keybridge examines whether President Trump’s attacks will affect Fed policy going forward, and how the attacks will impact public confidence in the independent institution.

Related Documents: Key Insight – Fed Under Fire – October 2018

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic Indicators

Real disposable personal income rose 0.1% in September while real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.3%. The PCE price index edged up 0.1% (up 2.0% Y/Y) and the core price index rose 0.2% (up 2.0% Y/Y). BEA Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal writes that despite recent, strong growth the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing. Economists say that the main drivers of the current surge in growth — consumer spending and government spending — are likely to weaken in the coming quarters as the effects of tax cuts and spending bills fade. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that China’s top economic planning entity has proposed cutting a key tax on some automobiles in half. The proposal, which comes as China’s auto market is expected to decline this year for the first time since 1990, would boost profits for foreign automakers selling compact vehicles in China. FT

U.S. Economic News

U.S. Economic News

October 26, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The first estimate of Q3 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.5%, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3.4%. The reading reflects healthy consumer spending, government spending, and private inventories. BEA Report
 
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.5 points to 98.6 in the final October reading, and is down 2.1 points on the year.
The Index of Consumer Expectations edged down 1.2 points to 89.3, while the Current Economic Conditions Index dropped 2.1 points to 113.1. Report

U.S. News

Melissa Korn of the Wall Street Journal writes that on average, 43% of college graduates end up with first jobs that do not require a college degree. Data also show that of those who are underemployed in their first job out of college, about two-thirds remain in jobs that don’t require college degrees five years later. WSJ

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the Fed should pause their interest rates hikes in order to allow wages to grow more quickly. Kashkari also contends that a pause in interest rate hikes would allow the FOMC to see how much slack remains in the labor market. WSJ