Publications

The Wall Street Journal reports that former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says that an “economic Iron Curtain” may soon descend between the U.S. and China. Paulson criticized China for failing both to open its economy and to end uncompetitive practices such as forced technology transfers and government subsidies, practices which he says has unified the American business community against China and could pose a major threat to global markets. WSJ

Austen Hufford of the Wall Street Journal writes that manufacturers are building new factories closer to their customers to minimize logistical issues and to lower transportation costs. Data show that 12% of U.S. manufacturers that added capacity in the second quarter did so via building expansions, which is the highest mark in at least a decade and a sign that manufacturers are feeling pressure from rising costs. WSJ

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 7.0 million job openings at the end of September, a decline from August.  Hires edged down to 5.7 million while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4%.  BLS Report

Mike Bird of the Wall Street Journal writes that China’s neighbors may benefit from the U.S.–China trade war. Economists expect that Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea will benefit from U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods as global supply chains realign to avoid tariffs on goods such as clothing and electronic equipment. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that American firms have managed the effects of U.S. tariffs thus far by raising prices or adjusting their supply chains but face worsening prospects next year. Firms in industries ranging from computer chips to heavy machinery say that sales have not yet suffered noticeably due to tariff activity, though the combination of slowing global growth and escalating trade conflicts would have a larger impact in 2019. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. has issued waivers to eight countries to exempt them from new sanctions on Iranian oil. The waivers, which allow temporary imports of Iranian oil, were issued to China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey and may help alleviate some of the supply pressures seen earlier this year. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that investment banks raised their oil price forecasts last month. Several banks expect further output losses totaling 1 million barrels per day from Iran as U.S. sanctions take effect next week, though it remains to be seen whether other OPEC members can cover some of the lost supply. WSJ