Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Privately-owned housing starts rose 1.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million (down 2.9% year-over-year). Housing permits declined 0.6% to a 1.27 million annual pace in October and are down 6.0% on the year.  Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NAHB Housing Market Index plunged 8.0 points to 60.0 in November and is now at its lowest point in over two years.  All the major components of the index posted declines this month as rising interest rates and home prices dampen demand. NAHB Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. factories are burning through inventories as logistical problems hamper restocking efforts. Company executives report that escalating tariffs, especially on Chinese imports, have driven firms to stock up on key goods, which in turn has exacerbated logistical issues and has increased input costs. WSJ

Jon Sindreu of the Wall Street Journal writes that a global U.S. dollar shortage has reemerged as 2018 comes to a close. Sindreu points to more restrictive banking regulations, the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet, and rising short-term interest rates in the U.S. as causes for the shortage. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Industrial production inched up 0.1% in October (up 4.1% Y/Y), after increasing 0.2% (revised) in September.  Capacity utilization edged down 0.1 point to 78.4 in October.  Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that imports into U.S. seaports are surging as firms rush to stock inventories before new tariffs take effect.  The U.S.’ largest ports have seen double-digit growth in recent months, though many shipping executives expect the volume of goods to slow noticeably in early 2019 once the new tariffs take effect. WSJ

Richard Rubin of the Wall Street Journal writes that the new measure of inflation used by the IRS to adjust tax brackets, the standard deduction, and other items will cost Americans roughly $133 billion over a decade. The new measure of inflation rises more slowly than the old measure because it better takes into account consumers’ tendency to purchase cheaper goods or services as prices increase. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 0.8% in October and were up 4.6% on the year.  Core sales — which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — increased 0.3%. Census Bureau Report
 
Business inventories were up 0.3% in September and were up 4.4% from last year.  Manufacturers’ sales increased 0.9% and were up 6.7% on the year. Census Bureau Report
 
Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 to 216,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 1,500 to 215,250.  DOL Report
 
The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that industrial activity in the New York region grew at a solid clip, as the headline index inched up 2 points to 23.3.  The new orders index edged down to 20.4, the shipments index was little changed at 28.0, and the index for number of employees rose to 14.1; meanwhile, hours worked increased.  NY Fed Report

U.S. News

Neil Irwin of the New York Times writes that despite a booming economy the U.S. housing market is slumping. Irwin points to the fact that home prices have risen twice as fast as incomes in several major cities, which has priced many buyers out of the market now that mortgage rates have jumped above 5%. NYT