Publications

The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s Commerce Ministry acknowledged that Beijing and the U.S. agreed to a 90-day pause in tariff increases to allow negotiations to proceed. Top government agencies and China’s supreme court also announced new, strict punishments for violating intellectual property rights, a key demand from the Trump administration. WSJ

Mike Bird at the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. yield curve is close to inversion, indicating lower expectations for future economic growth. Yields on longer-dated bonds have dropped while yields on short-dated Treasurys have remained flat due to falling longer-term growth and interest rate expectations. WSJ

Daniel Kruger of the Wall Street Journal reports that the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to its lowest in three months, a sign that some investors are worried U.S. growth may be easing. U.S. trade tensions with China, volatile oil and stock markets, and sliding global growth all have put downward pressure on the 10-year rate. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles stated that last week’s remarks from Jerome Powell do not indicate a change in the interest-rate outlook. Quarles also said that current data suggest that the Fed is meeting its dual mandate of full employment and price stability. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that China has agreed to cut tariffs on cars imported from the United States, signaling a willingness to make concessions in order to ease trade tensions. However, U.S. auto manufacturers still may protect themselves from future trade spats by building fewer autos in the U.S. for export. WSJ

Michael Derby of the Wall Street Journal reports that Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has cautioned against the Fed further raising interest rates, warning the U.S. economy could be pushed into a recession if borrowing costs continue to rise. Kashkari cites historically low unemployment in addition to muted inflation as reason for the Fed to take a “wait and see” approach to future interest rates hikes. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that the leaders of the U.S., Mexico, and Canada signed the USMCA agreement in Buenos Aires. The agreement requires that 40% to 45% of automotive vehicles be made by workers earning at least $16 per hour to qualify as duty-free, and it also weakens protections for multinationals investing in other countries. WSJ

According to Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting indicate plans to raise interest rates in December, though the pace of rate hikes in 2019 is less certain. Fed officials raised concerns that trade, fiscal policy, as well as lagged effects of their recent policy tightening could be potential triggers for an economic slowdown. WSJ

Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated in a speech yesterday that interest rates are just below the estimated neutral level, the level that neither speeds nor slows the economy. Powell also emphasized the Fed’s plan to continue raising rates gradually, which is an effort to tamp down inflation and financial distortions while also not shortening the current expansion. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that American companies’ overseas profit growth has begun to decelerate due to the slowing global economy. The author also says that domestic profit growth, while currently strong, could also slow if a stronger dollar, rising material and labor costs, and trade uncertainty begin to weigh on U.S. companies at home. WSJ