Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices remained unchanged in November (up 2.2% on the year).  The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in November and is up 2.2% on the year.  BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that in a move to ease trade tensions with the U.S., China plans to replace its “Made in China 2025” industrial policy with a new policy that promises greater access for foreign companies. Chinese officials are drafting the replacement for the Made in China 2025 plan, which had previously sought to make China a pioneer in high tech industries at the expense of foreign firms. WSJ

John Reed of the Financial Times reports that a new U.N. report forecasts that the U.S.-China trade war will slow Asia-Pacific trade in 2019. The trade war is expected to cut Asia-Pacific export growth to 2.3% from around 4.0% in 2018 and could lower global GDP by $400 billion in 2019. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.6 points to 104.8 in November but remains near all-time highs, as eight of the components declined and two remained unchanged. Expected Business Conditions plunged 11 percentage points to 22%, the lowest reading since November 2016. NFIB Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand inched up 0.1% in November and is up 2.5% since November of last year. The core — which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — rose 0.3% and is up 2.8% year-over-year. BLS Report

U.S. News

According the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. and China began the latest round of trade talks with a phone call between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. The three discussed Chinese purchases of agricultural products and China’s general economic policies despite tensions over the arrest of a key Chinese business executive in Canada. WSJ

U.S. News

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 155,000 jobs in November, below consensus. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, the labor force participation rate remained at 62.9%, and average hourly earnings annual growth was unchanged at 3.1%. BLS Report

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that wholesale merchant inventories rose 0.8% in October to $652.1 billion. Inventories were up 6.9% year-over-year. Census Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index held steady at 97.5 in the preliminary December reading, and is up 1.6 points on the year. The Index of Consumer Expectations declined 2.0 points to 86.1, while the Current Economic Conditions Index increased 2.9 points to 115.2. Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that American importers are paying record amounts in customs duties as additional tariffs take effect. As tariff costs rise, companies will have to bear the costs, negotiate price reductions with foreign suppliers, or pass the higher costs to consumers. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs in November, below expectations of 190,000.  The services sector added 163,000 jobs and the goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs. ADP Report

Initial jobless claims fell 4,000 to 231,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 4,250 to 228,500. DOL Report

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3% (revised) in Q3 and was up 1.3% on the year. Hours worked increased 1.8% in Q3 and unit labor costs rose 0.9%. BLS Report

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index edged up 0.4 percentage point to 60.7 in November. The New Orders Index increased 1.0 percentage point to 62.5 while the Employment Index fell 1.3 percentage points to 58.4. ISM Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods fell 2.1% in October following a 0.2% (revised) increase in September, but are up 8.3% year to date. New orders excluding transportation rose 0.3% while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were unchanged. Census Bureau Report