Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NAHB Housing Market Index rose 4.0 points to 62.0 in February. All major components of the index posted gains for the second consecutive month, aided by lower interest rates, low unemployment, and rising consumer confidence. NAHB 

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is racing to strike trade deals across the world, as trade negotiations with China resume this week and the administration pushes to pass the USMCA deal. President Trump’s ambitious agenda, which envisions remaking commercial ties across Asia, Europe, and North America, will cover about 40% of the global economy. WSJ

Paul Kiernan of the Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said she expects interest rates to rise slightly this year if the U.S. economy meets her expectation of solid performance. Mester, who is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year, believes U.S. economic fundamentals remain sound and expects healthy growth in 2019. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4.3 points to 95.5 in the preliminary February reading, but is down 4.2 points on the year. The Index of Consumer Expectations jumped 6.3 points to 86.2, while the Current Economic Conditions Index edged up 1.2 points to 110.0. Report
 
Industrial production dropped 0.6% in January (up 3.8% Y/Y), after increasing 0.1% (revised) in December. Capacity utilization decreased 0.6 point to 78.2 in January.  Fed Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Fed officials are nearing a plan to end the wind-down of their $4 trillion balance sheet. Various regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents have expressed support for ending the balance sheet runoff relatively soon, which would ensure that there is a substantial buffer of reserves in the banking system. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Commerce Department is concluding its investigation into whether imported cars pose a national security threat and will submit findings to the President by Sunday. Consumers are expected to pay more for imported cars under the tariffs, but may also face higher prices for domestic vehicles if the tariffs fall on imported automobile components, as domestically-produced cars usually contain 40-50% foreign components. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales dropped 1.2% in December — the largest drop since 2009 — but were up 2.3% on the year.  Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — plunged 1.7%. Census Bureau Report
 
Business inventories edged down 0.1% in November but were up 4.6% from last year.  Manufacturers’ sales fell 0.6% but were up 4.4% on the year. Census Bureau Report
 
Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 239,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 6,750 to 231,750. DOL Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand eased 0.1% in January but is up 2.0% since January of last year. The core — which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — rose 0.2% and is up 2.5% year-over-year. BLS Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices were unchanged in January (up 1.6% on the year). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% in January and is up 2.2% on the year.  BLS Report

U.S. News

The Financial Time reports that the number of U.S. borrowers more than 90 days delinquent on their auto loans rose to the highest level on record in late 2018. While the share of borrowers more than 90 days delinquent remains below peaks seen during the Great Recession, economists say this is a worrying development given the healthy labor market and relatively strong wage growth. FT
 
According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump is expected to sign the bipartisan border-security deal lawmakers agreed to this week. Although administration officials have cautioned that no final decision has been made, many expect that the President will take the opportunity to avoid another government shutdown. WSJ