Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose 3.0 percentage points to 59.7 in February. The New Orders Index rose 7.5 percentage points to 65.2, while the Employment Index declined 2.6 percentage points to 55.2. ISM Report

New home sales rose 3.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 621,000 in December, but are 2.4% below the December 2017 rate.  The median sales price rose to $318,600 and the inventory of new homes rose to 6.6 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that China lowered its economic growth target this year to between 6% and 6.5% amid a deepening slowdown that is further exacerbated by elevated debt levels. Despite such high levels of debt, Chinese authorities are considering increasing deficit spending, launching new tax cuts, and boosting bank lending to small and private companies. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren stated the Fed should hold off on interest rate hikes while it assesses whether turbulence in the economy at the end of 2018 has carried into 2019. Rosengren also indicated that it remains to be seen if last year’s weaknesses are signs of a long-term slowdown or a response to temporary concerns. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that President Trump disrupted trade relations with India and Turkey after deciding goods from the two countries were no longer eligible for tariff-free access to the U.S. market. The U.S. trade representative stated that Turkey and India no longer qualified as “beneficiary developing countries,” which provided low-income and emerging economies with duty-free access to the U.S. market for some exports. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Construction spending declined 0.6% in December to an annualized rate of $1.29 billion.  Public construction dropped 0.6% while private construction also fell 0.6%.  Census Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that investors are skeptical that the U.S. economy will be able to strengthen after a soft start to the year. The growth outlook has dimmed amid waning manufacturing activity, consumer spending, and business confidence, as well as inflation continuing to undershoot the Fed’s target of 2%. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. and China are in the final stage of completing a trade deal following February’s talks in Washington. In the trade deal Beijing would reduce restrictions on American products and step up purchases of U.S. goods, while Washington would remove most sanctions levied against Chinese products. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Disposable personal income eased -0.1% in January after rising 1.1% in December, while real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) decreased 0.6% in December. The PCE price index edged up 0.1% (up 1.7% Y/Y) and the core price index increased 0.2% (up 1.9% Y/Y). BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.6 points to 93.8 in the final February reading and is down 5.9 points on the year. The Index of Consumer Expectations increased 4.5 points to 84.4, while the Current Economic Conditions Index eased 0.3 point to 108.8. University of Michigan

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose 2.4 percentage points to 54.2 in February.The Employment Index fell 3.2 percentage points to 52.3 while the New Orders Index dropped 2.7 percentage points to 55.5.  ISM Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. economy is experiencing the most robust job market in half a century, with employment and wage growth rising for low-skilled and less-educated workers. Persistently low inflation has the potential to make low unemployment more sustainable than in the past. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims rose 8,000 to 225,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 7,000 to 229,000. DOL Report

The initial estimate of Q4 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6%, above the consensus estimate of 2.2%. The reading reflects healthy consumer spending, federal government spending, and changes in private inventories. BEA Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that activity in China’s manufacturing sector fell to its lowest level in three years in February, weighed on by weak global demand and the long Lunar New Year. Despite government attempts to spur investment and activity, many economists view this as the latest sign of continued weakness and a slowing economy. WSJ

Kris Maher of the Wall Street Journal reports that ten years after the recession, states have sufficient financing to have a choice of what to spend revenues on rather than what programs to cut. The stability is welcomed after several years when revenues have been uneven for some states, particularly those that rely on natural resources. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit widened to $79.5 billion in December from $70.5 billion in November. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 1.1% and retail inventories increased 0.9%. Census Bureau Report
 
New factory orders for manufactured goods increased 0.1% in December following a 0.5% (revised) drop in November, and are up 7.4% year to date. New orders excluding transportation fell 0.6% while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 1.0%. Census Bureau Report

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales increased 4.6% in January (down 2.3% Y/Y).  NAR points to a recent change in Federal Reserve Policy and the reopening of the government as benefiting the market.  NAR Report

U.S. News

Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is in no rush to move interest rates while officials assess how slower global growth and financial market turbulence affect the economy. Despite the strong job market and muted inflation pressures, Powell pointed to slowing Chinese and European growth, the U.S.-China trade war, and Brexit as headwinds to consider coming from abroad. WSJ