Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged up 0.5 point to 101.7 in December but remains near all-time highs, as five components rose, two fell, and three remained unchanged. Expectations for the economy to improve and current job openings both increased. NFIB Report

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in February (up 1.5% on the year).  The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% in February and is up 2.1% on the year.  BLS Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on car imports faces headwinds amid congressional opposition, legal challenges, and consumer concerns. President Trump’s proposed tariffs would tax cars imported from abroad by 25%, but would also raise prices for U.S.-made cars by taxing imported auto components. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales rose 0.2% in January and were up 2.3% on the year.  Core sales — which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — increased 1.1%. Census Bureau Report
 
Business inventories were up 0.6% in December and were up 4.8% from last year.  Manufacturers’ sales fell 0.2% but were up 4.1% on the year. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has described current interest rates as “roughly neutral,” given a healthy U.S. economy but slowing growth in Europe and China. Fed officials believed in December that they would need to raise rates one to three more times in 2019, however calls for rate hikes have been paused amid financial volatility and a slowing global economy. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy added 20,000 jobs in February, far below consensus. The unemployment rate declined to 3.8%, the labor force participation rate held at 63.2%, and average hourly earnings annual growth edged up to 3.4%. BLS Report

Privately-owned housing starts rose 18.6% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million (down 7.8% year-over-year). Housing permits rose 1.4% to a 1.35 million annual pace in January but are down 1.5% on the year.  Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Financial Times, China reported a 20.7 percent year-on-year decline in exports for February—the steepest decline in three years—amid reduced optimism for a quick resolution to the trade dispute with the U.S. South Korean and Japanese exports also declined, heightening concerns about the global ramifications of the dispute. FT

The Wall Street Journal reports that recent stock market turbulence has dropped total net worth of U.S. households by 3.5% during the fourth quarter of 2018, despite slight gains in the value of real estate. In a sign of caution, households and businesses borrowed at a slower pace, pointing to slower capital spending and adding less fuel to economic growth. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 223,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 3,000 to 226,250. DOL Report

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.9% in Q4 and was up 1.8% on the year. Hours worked increased 1.2% in Q4 and unit labor costs rose 2.0%. BLS Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that economic activity expanded across the U.S. at the beginning of 2019, although many parts of the country noted the government shutdown led to slower economic activity, according to a Federal Reserve report. The shutdown dampened growth in various sectors, such as auto sales, tourism, and retail. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, the European Central Bank signaled a major policy reversal by identifying plans to stimulate the eurozone’s faltering economy less than three months after ending a $2.9 billion bond buying program. The reversal makes the ECB the first rich-country central bank to ease policy in response to a global slowdown, as they will hold interest rates at their current levels and issue cheap long-term loans for banks. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 183,000 jobs in February, above expectations of 180,000. The services sector added 139,000 jobs and the goods-producing sector added 44,000 jobs. ADP Report

The U.S. trade deficit increased from $50.3 billion in November (revised) to $59.8 billion in December. The goods deficit rose $9.0 billion while the services surplus decreased $0.5 billion. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Paul Hannon of the Wall Street Journal reports that the global economy is unlikely to receive a boost from a trade agreement between the U.S. and China, as uncertainty over future relations between the two countries is likely to linger, according to a report by the OECD. While U.S. tax cuts and government spending increases have helped protect the economy from negative impacts of the trade dispute, that protection will not last indefinitely. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that the OECD has slashed their economic growth forecasts for the eurozone to just 1% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020. The reduction in expected growth is driven largely by downgrades in expectations for Germany, who is experiencing a manufacturing slump, and for Italy, who lingers near a recession. FT