Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

The NAHB Housing Market Index remained steady at 62.0 in March. The inventory of affordably priced homes increased, bringing more entry-level buyers into the market. NAHB Report

U.S. News

Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve officials are likely to signal little if any appetite to raise interest rates this year, concerned about the risks of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. Additionally, officials are preparing to announce when they will stop reducing their $4 trillion balance sheet. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Chinese government will cut taxes, increase deficit spending, and ease credit in order to mitigate its economic slowdown. The total stimulus will add up to 4.6 trillion yuan to the economy, a much smaller package relative to GDP than the program rolled out by Beijing in 2008. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that business activity grew only slightly, as the headline index declined 5.0 points to 3.7, its third consecutive month below 10.0.  The new orders index fell 5.0 points to 3.0, the shipments index declined 3.0 points to 7.7, and the index for number of employees rose to 13.8; meanwhile, hours worked turned negative for the first time since 2016.  NY Fed Report

Industrial production rose 0.1% in February (up 3.5% Y/Y), after decreasing 0.4% (revised) in January.  Capacity utilization edged down 0.1 point to 78.2 in February.  Fed Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4.0 points to 97.8 in the preliminary March reading, and is down 3.6 points on the year. The Index of Consumer Expectations increased 4.8 points to 89.2, while the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 2.7 points to 111.2. UMich Report

U.S. News

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (“JOLTS”), a closely-watched measure of labor market health, indicated there were 7.6 million job openings at the end of January, unchanged from December.  Hires remained at 5.8 million while the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3%.  BLS Report

The Wall Street Journal reports that China made last-minute changes to a proposed foreign investment law to address forced technology transfer, hoping to bolster a compromise seen as crucial to striking a trade deal with Washington. The law would prohibit officials from divulging corporate secrets under threat of criminal prosecution. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims increased 6,000 to 229,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 2,500 to 223,750. DOL Report

New home sales fell 6.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 607,000 in January, and are 4.1% below the January 2018  rate.  The median sales price fell to $317,200 and the inventory of new homes rose to 6.6 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Chinese economy continues to slow despite authorities’ efforts to increase spending on infrastructure, lower taxes for households and businesses, and encourage banks to lend more to small businesses. The Chinese government has cited a number of headwinds restricting growth, including trade tensions with the U.S. and a slump in auto sales. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, British Parliament unexpectedly voted against a no-deal exit from the European Union a day after rejecting a Brexit deal for the second time. Capital markets and the British pound have remained strong through 2019, indicating investors are not expecting a disruptive Brexit as the March 29 deadline draws near. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 0.4% in January after rising 1.3% (revised) in December, and are up 7.8% year to date.  Excluding transportation, new orders edged down 0.1% (up 3.7% YTD).  Census Bureau Report

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand edged up 0.1% in February and is up 1.9% since February of last year. The core — which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — rose 0.1% in February and is up 2.3% year-over-year. BLS Report

Construction spending rose 1.3% in January to an annualized rate of $1.3 trillion.  Public construction rose 4.9% while private construction increased 0.2%.  Census Report

U.S. News

James Politi of the Financial Times reports that President Trump’s trade representative Robert Lighthizer has warned that negotiations to end the trade conflict with China are at risk of failing. Lighthizer cited a number of unresolved issues that could prevent an agreement, including the timeline for removing existing tariffs and the imposition of enforcement provisions to ensure China adheres to the deal. FT