Publications

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that since bottoming out in September 2015, labor force participation has stabilized around 63% despite downward pressure from an aging population. High numbers of job openings and steadily rising wages have pulled in both workers in their prime working years and those of retirement age, allowing the economy to grow faster without pushing up inflation. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans does not expect the Fed to hike interest rates until the second half of next year. Evans also believes the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain solid, although there is more downside risk than upward potential as the economy softens more than expected. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Existing home sales jumped 11.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.51 million in February, but are 1.8% below year-ago levels. NAR notes that lower mortgage rates, more inventory, and rising consumer income and confidence drove the rebound in sales. NAR Report

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that wholesale merchant inventories rose 1.2% in January to $669.9 billion. Inventories were up 7.7% year-over-year. Census Report

U.S. News

The Financial Times reports that U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue has warned that negotiations to resolve the trade conflict with China have hit a rough patch. U.S. farmers struggling under retaliatory tariffs are counting on a deal to include increased Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and poultry, but China’s willingness to make concessions remains unclear. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 9,000 to 221,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 1,000 to 225,000. DOL Report

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% to 111.5 in February. Although the recent increase suggests the economy will expand in the near term, the index’s slowing growth rate suggests that economic growth may decelerate by year end. Conference Board Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that originations for jumbo mortgages dropped 12% last year, outpacing the decline in lower-cost mortgages that meet standards for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s government backing. High-cost mortgages dominate the market in expensive cities, but demand is cooling amid a slowing U.S. economy and new tax laws that reduce incentives to buy large homes. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve officials stated they are unlikely to raise interest rates this year and may be finished with the series of rate hikes that began in 2016. Projections showed that 11 of the 17 Fed officials who have a role in interest rate policy did not think the Fed would have to raise rates this year, up from two in December. Mild inflation pressures, a sharp pullback in financial risk-taking, and slowing U.S. growth have softened the Fed’s outlook. WSJ

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that borrowing costs for some U.S. consumers, particularly those with good credit scores, have decreased in recent months as lenders reacted to the Federal Reserve’s message that it is unlikely to raise rates for the foreseeable future. Rates have declined for auto loans and mortgages, reflecting concerns that the U.S. economy may be slowing more than anticipated. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, negotiators for the U.S. and China have scheduled a new round of high-level trade talks in the hope of closing a deal by late April to end the yearlong conflict between the world’s two largest economies. The two sides still have important issues to resolve, including how to enforce a deal and the pace at which the U.S. and China will roll back tariffs imposed over the past year. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

New factory orders for manufactured goods increased 0.1% in January following a 0.1% (revised) rise in December, and are up 3.8% year to date. New orders excluding transportation fell 0.2% while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.8%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, the White House in a new report highlighted the strength of labor-force participation and pushed for policies to encourage more people to work as millions of baby boomers retire. The report stated the government could encourage greater labor-force participation through policies aimed at improving the accessibility of childcare, employer training programs, and changes to the criminal justice system. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that U.S. farm groups are increasing pressure on President Trump to launch trade talks with Tokyo as they lose sales and market share in Japan following America’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. U.S. pork exports to Japan totaled $1.6 billion last year, and have dropped 35% in volume thus far in 2019. FT