Publications

U.S. Economic Indicators

Retail sales dropped 0.2% in February but were up 2.2% compared to last year.  Core sales — which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — also fell 0.2% after a 1.7% (revised) surge in January. Census Bureau Report

The ISM Manufacturing Index increased 1.1 percentage points to 55.3 in March. The Employment Index rose 5.2 percentage points to 57.5 while the New Orders Index rose 1.9 percentage points to 57.4.  ISM Report

Construction spending rose 1.0% in February to an annualized rate of $1.32 trillion. Public construction rose 3.6% while private construction increased just 0.2%.  Census Bureau Report

Business inventories increased 0.8% in January and are up 5.3% from last year.  Manufacturers’ sales edged down 0.4% but are up 2.9% year-over-year. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s official manufacturing PMI hit a six-month high in March, indicating expansions in new orders, production, and hiring. The rebound suggests that Beijing’s stimulus measures are finally starting to take effect, but economists caution that unresolved trade issues with the U.S. and deflationary pressure in manufacturing and commodities will continue to drag on China’s growth. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Disposable personal income increased 0.2% in February after easing 0.2% in January, while real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose 0.1% in January. The PCE price index eased 0.1% (up 1.4% Y/Y) and the core price index increased 0.1% (up 1.8% Y/Y) in January. BEA Report

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose 4.6 points to 98.4 in the final March reading and is down 3.0 points on the year. The Index of Consumer Expectations increased 4.4 points to 88.8, while the Current Economic Conditions Index rose 4.8 points to 113.3. University of Michigan

New home sales rose 4.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 667,000 in February, and are 0.6% above the February 2018 rate.  The median sales price rose to $315,300 and the inventory of new homes dropped to 6.1 months at the current sales rate. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal reports that Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the central bank will closely monitor pressing risks to global growth, drawing on past examples of success by the Fed in mitigating risks from abroad. Clarida maintains that financial linkages have tightened from globalization, so foreign risks such as Brexit pose a greater threat. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 to 211,000 last week. The four-week moving average fell 3,250 to 217,250. DOL Report

The third estimate of Q4 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2%, down from February’s initial estimate of 2.6%. The reading reflects downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures, government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment, which were partially offset by downward revision to imports. BEA Report

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales decreased 1.0% in February (down 4.9% Y/Y).  NAR characterized the drop as a minor decline coming off a solid gain in the prior month.  NAR Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Kansas City Fed President Esther George voiced support to hold rates steady for now, suggesting the Fed should use this time to assess how last year’s four rate hikes affected the economy. She stated that job gains, wage increases, and consumer confidence are expected to support consumer spending in the near term but noted the medium term risk of slower growth abroad. WSJ

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. trade deficit decreased from $59.9 billion in December (revised) to $51.1 billion in January. The goods deficit fell $8.2 billion while the services surplus increased $0.5 billion. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal reports that some Federal Reserve officials say it is too soon to consider cutting U.S. interest rates despite slowing global growth. Given the recent yield curve inversion, investors believe the Fed is finished raising rates and increasingly expect officials to lower them. WSJ

The Wall Street Journal reports that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has signaled concern about the adverse effects of negative interest rates, a controversial policy tool that reduces borrowing costs and weakens an economy’s exchange rate. Negative interest rates are being implemented across Europe, including in Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark, as central banks seek to spur economic activity amid a decelerating global economy. WSJ

According to the Financial Times, growth in U.S. home prices cooled in January following a lackluster 2018 as unaffordable homes keep some would-be buyers on the sidelines. Rising mortgage rates, elevated property values, and limited property listings discouraged prospective buyers, while home builders felt pressure from high commodity prices and labor shortages. FT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined from 131.4 in February to 124.1 in March. The Index declined after rebounding in February, driven largely by a decline in the Present Situation Index which reflects consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions.  Conference Board Report

Privately-owned housing starts dropped 8.7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million (down 9.9% year-over-year). Housing permits fell 1.6% to a 1.30 million annual pace in February and are down 2.0% on the year.  Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren says the central bank’s balance sheet drawdown was not the cause of financial market volatility at the end of 2018. Rather, Rosengren submitted that financial volatility was caused by concerns about the international economy, trade disputes, and the U.S. government shutdown. WSJ

According to the Wall Street Journal, Canada’s foreign minister indicated the government might delay ratification of the revised North American Free-Trade Agreement, now known as USMCA, until the Trump administration lifts tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum. Canada has levied a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariff on aluminum imports from the U.S in retaliation. WSJ