Publications

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. is projected to make a bigger contribution this year to global economic growth than China, for the first time since 2005. Overall, the world economy is estimated to grow by around 6% in 2021 – the fastest rate in almost five decades – driven in part by expectations that the U.S. will surpass its pre-COVID growth rate by mid-year. WSJ

The New York Times reports that included in President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package is a major extension of a child tax credit that will provide most parents with a monthly check of up to $300 per child. Experts have estimated that the benefits could cut child poverty by 45 percent overall and by more than 50 percent among Black families. NYT

U.S. Economic Indicators

The U.S. economy gained 379,000 jobs in February, well above consensus expectations. The unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2%, and the labor force participation rate remained at 61.4%. BLS Report

The U.S. trade deficit widened from $67.0 billion (revised) in December to $68.2 billion in January. The goods deficit rose by $1.3 billion and the services surplus rose by $0.1 billion. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 745,000 last week. The four-week moving average decreased 16,750 to 790,750. DOL Report

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 4.2% in Q4. Hours worked increased 10.1% while output increased 5.5%; unit labor costs rose 6.0%. BLS Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 2.6% in January following a 1.6% (revised) increase in December. New orders excluding transportation rose 1.7%, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were up 0.4%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ADP Employment Report shows that private-sector employment increased by 117,000 jobs in January, slightly below consensus estimates. The services sector gained 131,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector lost 14,000 jobs. ADP Report

The ISM Services Index fell 3.4 points to 55.3 in February, indicating the ninth straight month of growth for the services sector, though at a slower rate than in January. The New Orders Index decreased 9.9 points to 51.9, while the Employment Index decreased 2.5 points to 52.7. ISM Report

U.S. News

Bloomberg reports that the surge of imports into the U.S. economy – fueled by continued high demand for “pandemic commodities” such as furniture, home office equipment, and cleaning products – is unlikely to slow in the near future. At the same time, the broader U.S. economic recovery remains sluggish, highlighting another instance in which the pandemic has led to unexpected and atypical market outcomes. Bloomberg

According to the Washington Post, semiconductor chip shortages have forced U.S. automakers to cut back on production, threatening job losses for auto manufacturers and their supply chains. While President Biden recently signed an executive order intended to prevent future shortages of chips, there is an unlikely to be an easy fix to the increasingly complex problem. WaPo