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U.S. Economic News

October 11, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

Consumer prices edged up 0.1% in September (up 2.3% on the year). The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, also increased 0.1% in September and is up 2.2% on the year. BLS Report

Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 to 214,000 last week. The four-week moving average increased 2,500 to 209,500. DOL Report

U.S. News

Neil Irwin of the New York Times writes that rising long-term interest rates may indicate that the current economic expansion still has “room to run.” Irwin points out that long-term bond yields have risen in lockstep with inflation-protected bond yields, which suggests that a surge in inflation is not likely in the near-term and that economic growth should remain healthy. NYT

The Washington Post reports that the Treasury Department will soon impose new limits on foreign investment in U.S. technology companies. The new actions will limit foreign investment that includes minority, non-controlling stakes in key technologies such as aircraft development and computer manufacturing. WaPo

U.S. Economic News

October 10, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The headline Producer Price Index (“PPI”) for final demand rose 0.2% in September and is up 2.6% since September of last year. The core — which removes the volatile prices of food, energy, and trade services — surged 0.4% and is up 2.9% on the year. BLS Report

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that wholesale merchant inventories rose 1.0% in August to $642.7 billion. Inventories were up 5.3% year-over-year. Census Report

U.S. News

Former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers Edward Lazear writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the U.S. economy is not yet overheating. Lazear argues that because the U.S. labor market is still adding jobs at a rate above that which is needed to match the population growth rate there must still be slack in the economy. WSJ

The Financial Times reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has warned China not to competitively devalue the renminbi. The renminbi is now approaching its weakest point against the U.S. dollar since 2008, which may be an intentional devaluation but also likely reflects a slowing Chinese economy, a broader emerging-market selloff, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. FT

U.S. Economic News

October 4, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

Initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to 207,000 last week. The four-week moving average rose 500 to 207,000. DOL Report

New factory orders for manufactured goods rose 2.3% in August following a 0.5% (revised) decline in July, and are up 8.6% year-to-date. New orders excluding transportation edged up 0.1% while new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.9%. Census Bureau Report

U.S. News

According to the Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says that the U.S. economy is benefiting from “a remarkably positive set of economic circumstances,” and believes that the current expansion could continue for the foreseeable future. Powell also stated that while the labor market seems to be approaching full employment, it does not appear to be at risk of overheating. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

October 1, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The ISM Manufacturing Index decreased 1.5 percentage points to 59.8 in September. The Employment Index edged up 0.3 percentage point to 58.8 while the New Orders Index decreased 3.3 percentage points to 61.8. ISM Report

Construction spending inched up 0.1% in August to an annualized rate of $1.32 trillion. Public construction rose 2.0% while private construction edged down 0.5%. Census Report

U.S. News

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. and Canada reached a last-minute NAFTA deal late Sunday night. The deal — officially called the U.S-Mexico-Canada Agreement — requires a greater portion of vehicles to be made in North America with high-wage labor and also requires Canada to drop some protections for its dairy industry. WSJ

Sarah Chaney of the Wall Street Journal writes that the U.S. labor market currently has the lowest share of involuntary part-time workers since 2006. The broad unemployment rate — which includes part-time and discouraged workers — fell to 7.4% in August, its lowest point since 2001 and a sign that slack continues to be wrung out of the labor market as part-time workers find full-time jobs. WSJ

U.S. Economic News

September 27, 2018

U.S. Economic Indicators

The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index declined 1.8% in August (down 2.3% Y/Y). NAR says that contract activity has weakened due to worsening affordability, especially among more moderately prices homes. NAR Report

The U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report shows that the goods deficit widened to $75.8 billion in August from $72.0 billion in July. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories rose 0.8% and retail inventories rose 0.7%. Census Bureau Report

The third estimate of Q2 GDP indicates that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.2%, unchanged from the prior estimate. The reading reflects robust consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and net exports. BEA Report

New orders of manufactured durable goods rose 4.5% in August after declining 1.2% (revised) in July, and are up 9.2% year-to-date. Excluding transportation, new orders inched up 0.1% (up 8.2% year-to-date). Census Bureau Report

Initial jobless claims rose 12,000 to 214,000 last week. The four-week moving average edged up 250 to 206,250. DOL Report