U.S. Economic News
December 17, 2018
U.S. Economic Indicators
The December Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that industrial activity in the New York region grew at a much slower pace than in recent months, as the headline index plunged 12 points to 10.9. The new orders index slipped down to 14.5, the shipments index fell to 21.0, and the index for number of employees rose to 26.1; meanwhile, hours worked remained steady. NY Fed Report
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell 4.0 points to 56.0 in December and is now at its lowest point in over three years. All the major components of the index posted declines this month as rising interest rates and home prices dampened demand. NAHB Report
U.S. News
The Wall Street Journal reports that the slowing European and Chinese economies have sparked worries that a slowdown could spread to the United States. While U.S. economic indicators remain steady, key business-activity indicators recently fell in China and Europe, dampening U.S. markets. WSJ
Christoph V Schon reports for the Financial Times that, despite the fact that every U.S. recession in the previous 60 years was preceded by a yield curve inversion, the timing of the next recession is harder to predict. The author cites historical evidence suggesting it can take between six months and two years for a recession arrive after an inversion of the yield curve. FT