U.S. Economic News
June 17, 2019
U.S. Economic Indicators
The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity took a sharp downturn this month, as the headline index fell 26.0 points to -8.6, its largest monthly decline on record. The new orders index declined 22.0 points to -12.0 while the shipments index fell 7.0 points to 9.7; meanwhile, the index for number of employees declined 8.0 points to -3.5 and the hours worked index turned negative, indicating a slightly shorter workweek. NY Fed Report
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell 2.0 points to 64.0 in June. All major components of the index inched lower this month, driven by persistent lot shortages and a lack of skilled labor. NAHB Report
U.S. News
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Reserve’s most recent dot plot, a chart of individual Fed officials’ interest rate expectations, shows that most officials expect the federal funds rate to remain unchanged in 2019, despite bond markets predicting at least two rate cuts this year. Escalating trade tensions have made the dot plot less useful than in the past, as the Fed’s economic outlook depends on which of two uncertain scenarios – resolved or worsening trade frictions – ultimately comes to pass. WSJ
The Financial Times reports that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce submitted a letter to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative calling for a reversal of tariffs imposed over the last two years and condemning proposed tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods. The letter comes ahead of a week of hearings on the latest proposed tariffs with a range of specialist industry groups and large U.S. companies. FT